Craps System Tester
The system is not a theoretical system like most craps strategies. This strategy has been thoroughly tested by real players in real casinos and it really works! This system is so powerful that in two days you can quickly and easily learn how to win $294 an hour or more!. This manual completely describes what has been called the 'most predictable. The end result, if the system is ineffective, is the casino pays out less than it receives. Best Roulette system tester software. Roulette system tester software is invaluable, much like how computers automate many of our everyday life. Next Shooter is authored by a real Las Vegas craps dealer and covers everythingyou’d ever want to know about Craps and then some. We offer a unique view of thegame as seen from the casino and dealer’s perspective.And of course we’ve got stuff both for beginners with craps and advanced craps players.
The Craps Mini Field-Place System Tested
by Steve “Heavy” Haltom
Regardless of the fact that no system out there will beat a negative expectation game over the long run, articles about betting systems and strategies seem to get far more positive comments from readers than any other articles we publish. For that reason, in this article we’re going to focus on none other than with the infamous Field-Place System. Sold in magazines, bookstores, and on-line under dozens of different names for sixty years or more, the Field-Place System is one of the oldest strategies around. These days a popular variant is called the Iron Cross. Barstow used to call a similar strategy the Treadmill, which in itself should tell you what he thought of it. It’s been marketed as the 87% System, the Anything but Sevens System, the Fremont Street Grind, and under at least a dozen more names – many of which I won’t mention here because they were the names the players came up with for this play after investing hundreds of dollars in it and losing thousands more.
The play itself is relatively simple. Most of you are well acquainted with it. You make Place bets on the Five, Six, and Eight plus a bet in the Field. The Field bet covers the Two, Three, Four, Nine, Ten, Eleven, and Twelve. You’ll sometimes see urban players running a similar strategy using the Big 6-8 bet instead of Place betting the Six and Eight. These guys like the “self-service” bets like the Big 6-8 and the Field and play more of an intuitive game than most of us. Irregardless, the idea is to cover every number on the dice except the Seven. It’s better to make two unit bets on the place action and one unit bets in the Field but you can play it at the one unit level, which is what we’re talking about here when we discuss the “Mini Field-Place System.” You risk four units total and you are guaranteed some sort of a win (or a push on the urban version assuming the player also places the five) on every toss – unless that Seven shows. For players who first “discover” this system it’s often some sort of a “Eureka!” moment. They believe they’ve found the Dutchman’s Lost Mine. Then they take it to the table and learn the truth about Fool’s Gold.
How do the payouts work in this play? Let’s assume a $5 game that pays double on the Two and triple on the Twelve in the Field. You’ll have to wager $6 each on the Six and Eight Place bets but can get by with $5 on the Five and in the Field, so your total wager will be $22. Now, you could take that same $22 and bet $22 inside, but you’d only get paid if an inside number rolled. Remember, the Field-Place System, which we’re playing at the table minimum, gets you paid on every decision unless the seven rolls. Here are the payouts:
Two Rolls – Pays $10 in the Field
Three Rolls – Pays $5 in the Field
Four Rolls – Pays $5 in the Field
Five Rolls – Lose the $5 Field bet – win $7 for the Place bet – Net Win $2
Six rolls – Lose the $5 Field Bet – win $7 for the Place bet – Net Win $2
Eight rolls – Lose the $5 Field Bet – win $7 for the Place bet – Net Win $2
Nine Rolls – Pays $5 in the Field
Ten Rolls – Pays $5 in the Field
Eleven Rolls – Pays $5 in the Field
Twelve Rolls – Pays $15 in the Field
So far the math looks great on this system. It’s all win win win – pay pay pay. Of course, on your two strongest numbers – the Six and the Eight – your wins are diluted by your loss in the Field. The loss on the win on the Five Place bet in the Field also dilutes the win there. Those diluted payoffs – combined with the frequency at which the Seven rolls in relation to the other numbers – turn this into a negative expectation strategy. On average, for every 36 rolls of the dice you’ll win $123, but you’ll also lose $132. That’s a $9 loss over 36 rolls, or .25 cents a roll for those of you who are struggling with Common Core math.
Of course, what the system player is looking for is enough variance in the game to put him ahead so that he can walk away with a win. He may approach the game with a number in mind – say to win $150. But to get the kind of variance he needs on a dollar per dollar basis he can’t rely on volatility alone. So he has to increase his bet size. Instead of betting $5 on the Five and $6 on the Six and Eight he tests out different amounts. Say $50 on the Five, $60 on the Six and Eight and $25 in the Field. The logic is that he’s always assured of getting green chips in his payout so he’ll reach that $150 win objective quicker. The problem is that variance is a two-edged sword. To front that sort of average bet he needs a session bankroll of $1500 instead of $150. The stack of quarters extracted from every decision adds up quickly. And don’t forget – you only WIN one bet at a time. When the Seven shows ALL of those bets lose. I recall standing next to a guy who was playing the system at this level once. He was loudly bragging to everyone at the table how great it was as he locked up a full rail of green chips. Then he started to get quiet as the chips began to migrate back to the other side of the table. In the end he gave it all back plus what he bought in for – and went back to the ATM for a bankroll infusion and re-buy. He had the volatility he needed. He just didn’t have the discipline to quit while he was ahead.
Out of curiosity, I noodled around and found an archival test of the Field-Place System against the 72 Hours at the Casino book. Admittedly, the 14,967 rolls in that book have a slight dark-side bias, so it was obvious that the system would fare worse than in the statistical example cited above. It was even worse than I expected. The total win was $50,969. The total loss was $56,628. The net loss was $5,659.
72 hours at the casino. 72 of the most miserable hours of your life. It works out to about 36 two hour sessions or 18 four hour sessions. Hell, there was a time when I played that much in a single weekend. These days it might take me a month to get in that much play. Still, do you have an extra $5,659 to lose making $5 minimum bets?
Neither do I. And now you know why I hate this play.
Do yourself a favor. Just say no to this sort of thing and learn to beat the game by influencing the dice and betting the dice right.
Related Articles
Although I have tested a lot of systems, I don't need to test all of them to know they are all worthless. No system can ever pass the test of time. It is not unusual to win for a while with a system, but if you keep playing the odds will eventually catch up to you and you will fall behind.
For more information about the futility of betting systems, please see The Truth about Betting Systems.
A casino I played at had the 3,4,5 odds system where you were allowed 3x on the 4 and 10, 4x on the 5 and 9 and 5 x on the 6 and 8. I feel that with this 'system' of placing odds, you reduce the fluctuations (with respect to standard 5x odds on all numbers) in your bankroll, and change the distribution of net gain/loss per session, i.e. you would produce a sharper peak located slightly more to the loss side than with 5x odds. Is this so, and could you put some numbers to it?
That is known as 3-4-5X odds, and is now pretty common. The following table shows all the possible outcomes, for the pass and odds combined, with full odds.
Return Table with 3-4-5X Odds
Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
Pass line win | 1 | 0.222222 | 0.222222 |
Pass line loss | -1 | 0.111111 | -0.111111 |
Point of 4 or 10 & win | 7 | 0.055556 | 0.388889 |
Point of 4 or 10 & lose | -4 | 0.111111 | -0.444444 |
Point of 5 or 9 & win | 7 | 0.088889 | 0.622222 |
Point of 5 or 9 & lose | -5 | 0.133333 | -0.666667 |
Point of 6 or 8 & win | 7 | 0.126263 | 0.883838 |
Point of 6 or 8 & lose | -6 | 0.151515 | -0.909091 |
Total | 1.000000 | -0.014141 |
The standard deviation per pass line bet is 4.915632.
Unlike most gambling writers, I don't put much emphasis on betting strategies. Assuming the same game and bet, there is no one right or wrong strategy. They all behave differently in the short run, but in the long run you will give the house the same percentage of total money bet.
This is similar to a question I got last week. Yes, it is true that there are ten ways to roll a 6 or 8, and six ways to roll a 7. However, one must not look at the probabilities alone, but weight them against the payoffs. The place bet on the 6 and 8 pays 7 to 6 odds when fair odds would pay 6 to 5. By making six unit place bets on the 6 and 8, and taking the other down if one wins, the probability of winning 7 units is 62.5% and the probability of losing 12 units is 37.5%. If the player must cover both the 6 and 8, then the place bet is the way to go. This rate of return isn't bad but could be better. For the player who puts a priority on minimizing the overall house edge, the best strategy is to make combinations of pass, don't pass, come, and don't come bets, and always take the maximum allowable odds.
The better system is to bet on the don't pass only and take full odds. Yes, betting on both does increase you chances of winning on any one bet. However you are suffering a higher combined house edge by betting on both the pass and don't pass and it will cost you in the long run.
Yes, it was luck. It helped that you stuck to the low house edge bets. However, next time, make the line bets with odds only, and don't bet the field, especially if it pays 2 to 1 only on both the 2 and 12.
No combination of bets can give the player an advantage. In your example you would lose one unit for every 12 on the come out roll. You don't make up for it laying the odds. While you usually win laying the odds, you have to risk more. In the end, laying the odds has zero house edge.
As long as you are backing up your pass and come bets with full odds, it doesn't make any difference how many come bets you make. However, it does reduce the overall house edge to keep the odds on your come bets working on the come out roll.
You should never remove a don't pass bet after a point is made! Once a point is made of 6 or 8 the don't pass has equity of 9.09% of the bet amount, which you would be throwing away by taking the bet down. The equity of a don't pass bet on a point of 5 or 9 is 20%, and on a 4 or 10 is 33.33%.
Thanks for the compliment on my site. The best thing I can say about this system is that it composed of low house edge bets. Yes, a 12 will lose the pass bet and push the don’t pass on the come out roll, this is where the house edge is. By making the pass bet you are increasing the overall house edge. If you’re afraid losing you shouldn’t be playing at all. Never hedge your bets. So my advice is to stick to just the don’t pass and laying odds. Yes, you’ll lose some on the come out roll. However if you don’t lose on the come out roll the don’t pass bet will usually win.
I am a novice, just starting to play. My question concerns the 'Five Count Doey/Don’t' System. The way I understand the system:- Wait until the shooter establishes a point.
- Play both come/don’t come (same amount). Until you have a maximum of four numbers
- After the shooter has rolled five times without rolling a 7, take odds on all your numbers on the front side.
The rationale: Limit your exposure until you find a 'qualified' (five rolls without a 7) shooter. Only betting the odds so there is no 'house edge'! Can you compare this system with just playing pass/come and taking the odds?
As I stated in the other craps strategy question you are only mixing another house edge bet into the game by betting on both the pass and don’t pass, or come and don’t come. It is also not going to help to wait until a shooter hits five points. The probability of making a point is the same for me and you as it is for somebody who just threw 100 points in a row. In other words, the past does not matter. As I stated to the person who asked the other question (whom I think may also be you) don’t make opposite bets, just stick to either the do or don’t side and always back up your bets with the odds.
Free Craps System Tester
Unless bankroll preservation is very important to you then Kelly betting won’t help. I would just flat bet. Nice strategy to milk the comp system.
The American Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling has the following 'anything but seven' combination of craps bets that shows a net win on any number except 7. Here's how much MENSA advises to bet in the 'Anything but 7' system:- 5- place $5
- 6- place $6
- 8- place $6
- field- $5
- total= $22
They claim the house edge is 1.136%. How is that possible if every individual bet made has a higher house edge?
Good question. To confirm their math I made the following table, based on a field bet paying 3 to 1 on a 12. The lower right cell does shows an expected loss of 25 cents over $22 bet. So the house edge is indeed .25/22 = 1.136%.
Mensa Anything but Seven Combo
Number | Probability | Field | Place 5 | Place 6 | Place 8 | Win | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 0.027778 | 10 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 10 | 0.277778 |
3 | 0.055556 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.277778 |
4 | 0.083333 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.416667 |
5 | 0.111111 | -5 | 7 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 2 | 0.222222 |
6 | 0.138889 | -5 | 0.000000 | 7 | 0.000000 | 2 | 0.277778 |
7 | 0.166667 | -5 | -5 | -6 | -6 | -22 | -3.666667 |
8 | 0.138889 | -5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 7 | 2 | 0.277778 |
9 | 0.111111 | 5 | 0 | 0.000000 | 0 | 5 | 0.555556 |
10 | 0.083333 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.416667 |
11 | 0.055556 | 5 | 0 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.277778 |
12 | 0.027778 | 15 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 15 | 0.416667 |
Total | 1 | -0.25 |
The reason the overall house edge appears to be less than the house edge of each individual bet is because the house edge on place bets is generally measured as expected player loss per bet resolved.
However, in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll. This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4.00% to 1.11% on the 5 and 9, and from 1.52% to 0.46% on the 6 and 8.
For you purists who think I am inconsistent in measuring the house edge on place bets as per bet resolved (or ignoring ties) then I invite you to visit my craps appendix 2 where all craps bets are measured per roll (including ties).
Craig from Los Angeles
No. I had to Google this to find out what this is. This appears to me to be an amusing urban legend about some young scientists who developed a winning craps system. The story is told at Quatloos. I would file this under other fictional stories that have become mistaken for fact, like Joshua’s missing day. As I have said hundreds of times, not only can betting systems not beat games like craps, they can’t even dent the house edge.
If the player bets $5 on the field and 5, and $6 on the 6 and 8, then he will have a net win of $2 on the 5, 6, and 8, $10 on the 2, $15 on the 12, and $5 on the other field numbers, assuming that the 12 pays 3 to 1 on the field. The player will lose $22 on a 7. On a per roll basis, the player can expect to lose 25 cents compared to $22 in bets, for a house edge of 1.136%.
This begs the question, why is this lower than the individual house edge of each bet made? It’s not. The reason it seems that way is the result of comparing apples to oranges. The house edge of place bets is usually expressed as the expected loss per bet resolved. Looking at the individual bets on a per-roll basis, the house edge on the 5 is 1.11%, and on the 6 and 8 is 0.46%, according to my craps appendix 2. Comparing apples to apples, the house edge is a weighted average of the house edge on the field, 5, 6, and 8, on a per-roll basis, or (5/22)×2.778% + (5/22)×1.111% + (6/22)×0.463% + (6/22)×0.463% = 1.136%.
For the benefit of other readers, the 5-Count is a method of slow-playing craps, as discussed in ’Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution’ by Frank Scoblete and Dominator. As the book states, it is a way of betting nothing on some rolls, reducing your expected loss on random shooters, while still getting the full comp value of table time.
The way the 5-Count works is you start counting rolls as soon as a new shooter throws any point number. When you get to five rolls after you start counting, the shooter is deemed worthy, and you start betting. However, you if the 5th roll is not a point number, it doesn’t count.
The book says you will only be betting 43% of the time, which I agree with. It is common for craps players to not bet, bet small, or bet the don’t pass on new shooters, as a way to qualify him. Once a shooter has made a point, or thrown lots of point numbers, the other players will gain confidence in him, and start betting with him. So, this kind of strategy seems natural. When casinos rate your average bet, they don’t lower the average for betting nothing some of the time. However, sometimes they will dock your time, especially if you are betting big.
An alternative strategy is to wait until the shooter makes a point. Under this strategy you will only be betting 40.6% of the time, less than the 43.5% with the 5-Count.
Craps System Tester
Yes! I’ve said many times that betting systems not only can’t beat a house edge game, they can’t even dent it. That includes denting it in the house’s favor. In other words, even if he tried to lose, he still only gives up 0.18% over the long-run, under your assumptions. Over a shorter time, he probably could do this, but not over 'years.' Some might argue that to deliberately lose, the player should do an anti-Martingale, where the player kept pressing his bets until he lost. However, a problem there is that a winning player will eventually reach the table maximum, which is rather low in craps. It just goes to show how futile betting systems are.